John is 40 years old and has inherited a 125-ha farm in the Mildura region of North West Victoria. John’s has a plan for a new career as a commercial grape grower for the Victorian wine industry. He would begin by registering the farm as a limited liability company, called McKenzie Estate, with himself and his wife as shareholders.
He has the gathered lot of information for the calculation of NPV for this Investment option.
Data |
|||
Total Ha available in farms |
125 |
ha |
|
Farm allocation House |
5 |
ha |
|
Shiraz Vines Plant |
50 |
ha |
|
Chardonnay vines |
40 |
ha |
|
Sauvign Blanc Vine |
30 |
ha |
Moreover, Considering the risk which might be there in the investment he has created two risk scenarios as :-
Scenario 1
Bad frosts occur in the Mildura region from time to time. Frost can destroy 20% of grape harvests once every 5 years, and 50% once every 10 years.
Scenario 2
The price volatility of wine grapes is another important risk. Appendix C contains historical price data for the three grape varieties planned for McKenzie Estate. You should use that data to construct reasonable scenarios for analyzing the sensitivity of the NPV of the proposal to grape prices. The easiest way to do this is by varying the rate at which wine grape prices are expected to appreciate in the future
There are few assumption taken to calculate these three option:-
Following is the outcome for the above scenario and base case:
Summary Table |
|||||
Scenarios |
NPV( $) |
IRR |
Remarks |
Ranking |
Decision Recommendation |
Base Case |
3310479 |
10% |
No Change |
1 |
Accept- First option |
Scenario 1 |
2091597 |
8% |
Production Change |
3 |
Accept- Last option |
Scenario 2 |
3005733 |
9% |
Price Change |
2 |
Accept- Second option |
It can be concluded that overall investment will be positive investment and feasible option , but best scenario is the base case where IRR is also high i.e 10% , Second scenario is where only price change is there and last should be production change.
Remember, at the center of any academic work, lies clarity and evidence. Should you need further assistance, do look up to our Accounting and Finance Assignment Help
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