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Introduction

The article under review looks into the key problem of fiscal sustainability in India following the COVID-19 outbreak, as significant fiscal stimulus efforts led to in increased deficit & debt rates. The fundamental thesis centers on fiscal sustainability as a type of sound governance, assessing how likely the government is to stick to its economic strategies. The fundamental question investigated revolves around if India's fiscal management is sustainable, specifically about the real rate of interest relative to the real economic growth rate. The article goes deeper into the decrease in net worth & attempts to determine the fiscal headroom for the subsequent generations. A fiscal strategy for 2023-27 is laid out with an emphasis on fiscal independence & reprioritization of expenditures.

Critical review

The paper provides a thorough & insightful examination of India's budgetary sustainability. The careful investigation of deficit metrics, the introduction of fiscal weariness, including efforts to evaluate fiscal space is its assets. It could still gain from a more sophisticated examination of potential problems when carrying out the recommended fiscal plan, as well as a more in-depth consideration of the influence of external variables on budgetary sustainability. The Domar condition, which signals fiscal sustainability, is investigated, showing a troubling inconsistency. Prolonged fiscal exhaustion, unfulfilled FRBM Act requirements, & a decreasing net worth are cause for concern. Although satisfying the Domar requirement, which demonstrates a positive interest-growth differential, the study additionally demonstrates an unsustainable fiscal reaction operation, with chronic fiscal fatigue. The fiscal deficit persists over the required 3% of gross domestic product while the revenue & primary deficits continue to elevate, reflecting a fragmented fiscal environment.

There is a decrease in Net Worth. The data reveals a disturbing trend in the government's net worth, which is expected to surpass thirty-six percent of gross domestic product in 2021-22. This decreased net worth not solely indicates fiscal exhaustion, however additionally the adverse effect on the resources available for expansion spending. This degradation is skillfully linked to the long-term viability of fiscal management, according to the article.

Monitoring budgetary Space & the Fiscal Roadmap- The effort to quantify the budgetary space available over the next 5 years is worth noting. Fiscal empowerment (the maximization of earnings to the budget) & spending reprioritization (reversing the proportion of capital investment to revenue spending) are included in the fiscal plan suggested for 2023-27. The proposed increases in income revenues & capital spending have been viewed as critical measures for achieving budgetary sustainability.

Given the uncertainty surrounding COVID, the effort made to calculate fiscal headroom for the coming 5 years indicates foresight. The suggested fiscal strategy for 2023-27 is a praiseworthy undertaking that outlines methods for fiscal empowerment & reprioritization of expenditures. Nevertheless, the research might gain a more in-depth examination of the possible issues when implementing these strategies, as well as how external influences may influence their performance.

Revenue Receipts and Expenditure Re-Prioritization- The argument about boosting revenue collection from 7.9 % to 12.0 % of GDP to provide budgetary flexibility is instructive. The primary focus on re-prioritizing spending, particularly boosting capital spending to 3% of gross domestic product gives a concrete approach. This section successfully connects the suggested fiscal plan to the wider problem of fiscal sustainability.

There are some suggestions for enhancements in this article-

Looking at the recommended fiscal roadmap, which stresses revenue growth & spending reprioritization, is an important contribution. Yet, the article could have benefited from a greater understanding of possible problems in adopting these steps, as well as the possibility of meeting the goals established.

Handling External Issues: A clearer examination of external issues, which include global economic patterns, geopolitical impacts, & shifting trade movement, might offer a more comprehensive picture of the obstacles & possibilities for achieving sustainable fiscal growth.

While the study is detailed, real-life instances or case studies may have improved the paper by offering real-world insight into the hurdles & accomplishments of fiscal sustainable development initiatives in other nations.

Overall the article “Sustainability of Fiscal Policy is the Key to Prudent Fiscal Management in India in the Aftermath of COVID-19 Pandemic: An Assessment” delivers a thorough & analytical analysis of India's budgetary sustainability following COVID-19. To give a holistic view, it successfully blends theoretical frameworks, empirical evaluation, & suggestions for policies. Whereas the paper shines at analyzing major fiscal metrics, it might include more in-depth investigations of possible issues, actual-life instances, plus a more specific consideration of external influences. The suggested fiscal roadmap is an important contribution since it provides a comprehensive strategy for handling fiscal difficulties & working toward sustainability.

Comparing the research or study to other nations or regions which encountered comparable fiscal issues post-pandemic could also provide a better clarity into the findings.

Conclusion

 The conclusion expertly generates significant results, emphasizing the importance of switching from stimulus spending to compliance to the FRBM Act. The emphasis on fiscal openness & budget fairness deepens the case. The paper effectively communicates the point that fiscal policy sustainability is a governance need, not just an economic issue. Finally, the article provides an in-depth & critical evaluation of India's fiscal sustainability post-COVID. Its observations on deficit metrics, fiscal fatigue, & the suggested fiscal blueprint add substantially to the conversation about smart fiscal management. Whereas there is space for improvement, the article is an important addition to comprehending the difficulties of fiscal policy sustainability in the Indian context. The paper finishes with a striking comment from Blanchard, highlighting the constraints of fiscal adjustment & the requirement for prudence when adopting advanced-economy fiscal techniques in emerging-market nations including India. This inference emphasizes the significance of approaching fiscal sustainability in a sophisticated & context-specific manner.

Introduction

The "Seven Ages of Monetary Policy" theme covers the development of India's monetary policy over the years. Mastering the fundamental stages mentioned in the structure is required for analyzing the changes that have occurred in the method used in monetary policy from 1985 to the present. It is common to misunderstand history as having the benefit of hindsight, however changes are best comprehended in the context & state of understanding of the times. It is concluded with a few financial metrics that reflect the evolution of policy & economic outcomes.

Critical Anaysis

Monetary Targeting [1985 to 1998]

Throughout the Monetary Targeting period (1985-1998), central banks, particularly the RBI, focused on regulating the money supply as the key instrument for attaining macroeconomic goals. The strategy intended to affect inflation & sustain the market by managing the rate of currency expansion. Establishing defined goals for money supply development, usually assessed through different aggregates of money, was an essential feature of this time. Nevertheless, as financial developments & shifts in the speed of money rendered the connection between the supply of money & inflation increasingly uncertain, the usefulness of this technique was called into consideration. The difficulties & constraints of Monetary Targeting ultimately resulted in a global change in monetary policy paradigms as central banks explored more adaptable & nuanced methods, resulting in the progression toward targeting inflation in future years.

Multiple Indicators Approach [1998 to 2015]

The Multiple Indicators Approach (1998-2015) signaled a departure from the tight reliance on a single measure, including money supply expansions. Central banks, like the RBI, have adopted a more flexible strategy for making educated choices regarding policies by evaluating a varied set of data. The rate of interest, rates of exchange, & numerous economic indices were among the key indicators. Legislators were able to take into consideration for the intricacies of an evolving & linked economy using this strategy. It enabled a more thorough assessment of economic situations, allowing central banks to react to new difficulties with greater efficiency. The shift to a Multiple Indicators Method indicated an acceptance of the constraints of earlier frameworks as well as a commitment to adaptation to the demands of changing economic environments.

Preconditions Set for Inflation Targeting [2013-2016]

In an attempt to address the problems posed by the 2008 global financial crisis, the prerequisites for establishing targeting inflation were built between 2013 and 2016. The RBI formed an Expert Committee & proposed inflation as the nominal basis for monetary policy in its 2014 report. The context includes the requirement to balance development, manage inflation, & maintain fiscal stability.

Flexible Inflation Targeting [2016 onwards]

The Monetary Policy Framework Agreement signed in February 2015 confirmed India's acceptance of flexible inflation targeting. The May 2016 amendment to the RBI Act cemented this structure by highlighting the target number of 4% for CPI with a +/- 2% safety band. The central bank successfully conveyed its decisions, promoting a forward-thinking strategy that has resulted in continuous decreases in inflation since 2017-18, demonstrating the efficiency of the FIT structure for sustaining pricing stability in the face of economic headwinds.

Theories & international standards have affected the growth of India's fiscal policy structure. Money supply was selected as a notional foundation following the breakdown of the Bretton-Woods arrangement. Yet, discontent regarding the monetary targeting approach in advanced nations, particularly India, resulted in a move to the numerous indicators strategy during the 1990s. In 2016, India formally adopted inflation targeting, aligning it with worldwide patterns. Following the global economic downturn, there was a rethinking of the primary emphasis on stabilizing prices, with financial security appearing as a critical consideration. Despite changing policy structures, central banks' role as financiers of last resort continues critical.

Before the 1980s, India's financial system was constrained by a paucity of tools, unbalanced liquidity, & statutory restraints that hampered efficient monetary control. From the 1990s to the present, reforms focused on removing regulations, improving the integration of markets, & increasing transparency. The Liquidity Adjustment Facility was established in 2000-01, which also provided an instrument for managing liquidity & interest rate communication. Notwithstanding increased depth in the financial sector, the transmission of policy rate adjustments to larger marketplaces for credit remained difficult. Beginning with April 2016, the RBI has changed its liquidity management structure, utilizing numerous tools to provide constant short-term liquidity circumstances that are linked with the policy position, demonstrating an agile response to developing market circumstances.

Analyzing the present economic condition is difficult for central banks, particularly given fluctuating trend expansion, worldwide repercussions, & the divergence between financial & commercial cycles. The RBI traverses this complication by changing its economic evaluation regularly using newly collected information, surveys, including model-based forecasts. This proactive strategy enables the timely application of counter-cyclical procedures, as evidenced by the prompt recognition of an impending downturn. By conceding monetary policy's limitations, the RBI underlines the importance of structural changes & fiscal policies for long-term growth. Processing of food, travel, e-commerce, & infrastructural expenditure have been highlighted as critical contributors for growth in the economy.

Conclusion

Monetary policy arrangements in India have evolved in response to conceptual advances, economic upheavals, & financial market changes. Whereas the basic goals include inflation, growth, & monetary stability, the relative importance of these goals has differed among administrations. Considering worldwide uncertainties surrounding financial stability as an additional goal, the RBI has continuously prioritized it, following the RBI Act's Preamble. The emphasis goes beyond supervision & regulation to encompass money inclusion & the promotion of secure & instantaneous payments. Such measures seek not only to inspire public trust, but additionally to strengthen the legitimacy of monetary policy by promoting price stability, equitable expansion, & financial stability as a whole.

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